So the last game I previewed was the Auburn game. After successfully predicting a Vanderbilt win, BOIMH took a little time off to focus on law school, and things quickly started to fall apart for the Commodores. While I don't want to take all the blame for the disastrous past five weeks, rest assured that things will turn around now that the blog is back in action.
I am back right in time for the Kentucky game, and Vanderbilt is in familiar territory. A late season collapse, an underdog in an SEC matchup, and a tough away game in what looks to be uncomfortable weather on national TV. The line I've seen in this game is Kentucky (-4), with an over-under of 39. This leads to an estimated final of about 21-17, so how's it actually going to play out?
First, on defense the 'Dores have started to show their weaknesses. They have not come out hot in the first quarter but have seemed to make the needed adjustments to stop offenses in the second halves of games. Kentucky is probably going to come with a heavy running game, and I expect them to find some holes early, but once Vanderbilt starts coming with heavier blitzes and packing the box, it will be interesting to see if Kentucky can beat the secondary through the air.
On offense, it looks like Nickson will once again be starting this week with Mackenzie Adams suffering a hip pointer in last week's loss to Florida. Nickson looked decent in the second half, and the thing to look for this week is whether he can make quick reads. Vanderbilt's quarterbacks have looked lost in their timing other than the occasional slant route to the receivers and out routes to the tight ends. Vanderbilt needs to figure out the timing on the deep pass and the crossing routes, or they are going to be in trouble. I don't think Vanderbilt will rely on the pass, but they are going to have to make some plays in the passing game (on second and third downs) if they want to pull this game out.
All in all, this is certainly a winnable game for Vanderbilt, and I think the seniors will come out fired up on the road against a favored opponent. Leaders on the team like Nickson, Langford, George Smith, and others have to realize that their goal of going to a bowl game is slipping away, and it is up to them to put a stop to it. The conditions look to make it difficult for both teams on special teams as temperatures in the low to mid 40s and a high chance of rain are going to make snaps, holds, and kicks that much trickier.
Don't look for a lot of field goals from either team, but look for Vanderbilt to pull out a close, hard-fought game on the ground with maybe a big play through the air or in the return game mixed in.
Vanderbilt 21, Kentucky 17
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